Just when you thought it was safe to relax

[Dormouse]

More like the Land that Time Forgot.

[Dormouse]

Apparently I have been wrong all these years.

My "What If" theory should have been based on Swiss Cheese.

While trawling through the less sensational reports on the Australian Helicopter Crash i can across a crash investigator's analysis of the incident and he used this "well known" Swiss Cheese theory to explain the scenarios involved.

So, without trying to be sarcastic or flipant, is this theory Food for Thought?

Does anyone use or know of different models for assessing risks?

[mickthemaverick]

Part of my Open University degree was a course U201 Risk, The course covered many aspects of risk analysis, risk assessment, risk management etc including a section on the swiss cheese analogy. Having studied the course intently for the year I became quite proficient in the subject so I won't go into it anymore for fear of frightening off readers!

One incident which does come to mind was when at an evening tutorial concerning the Swiss Cheese model the tutor asked "So how can we eliminate risk altogether?" and some wag at the back shouted out:

Spoiler: show

Eat the cheese!!

[bobins]

A mate of mine, now sadly departed, used to assess the job in hand very effectively....
"I've done a risk assessment, it's all very dangerous, so be careful".
Seemed to cover all likelihoods

[Dormouse]

Part of my Open University degree was a course U201 Risk, The course covered many aspects of risk analysis, risk assessment, risk management etc including a section on the swiss cheese analogy. Having studied the course intently for the year I became quite proficient in the subject so I won't go into it anymore for fear of frightening off readers!

One incident which does come to mind was when at an evening tutorial concerning the Swiss Cheese model the tutor asked "So how can we eliminate risk altogether?" and some wag at the back shouted out:

Spoiler: show

Eat the cheese!!

That was always my reason for not liking the Swiss Cheese analogy - people remember the cheese but not much else.

[CitroJim]

One incident which does come to mind was when at an evening tutorial concerning the Swiss Cheese model the tutor asked "So how can we eliminate risk altogether?" and some wag at the back shouted out:

Spoiler: show

Eat the cheese!!

[Dormouse]

James Reason's "Swiss Cheese" analogy is best displayed this way. He just happened to describe the 4 layers as being like Swiss Cheese. It just stuck in people's minds as slices of cheese.

These represent the 4 main levels of failure and pre-suppose they are fixed for a linear trajectory of failure.

When I was studying this, our tutor wisely pointed out that things can always change and can be moving at any time on all 4 levels AND that unintended ricochets or refractions occur in the trajectories at each boundary.

Now that stuck with me as it meant there was no single, simple answer to the What Ifs.

[Dormouse]

This Tutor used to describe the discs as able to revolve until one Lad coined the phrase Russian Roulette. From then on he described the movement as "liable to change over time and circumstance". He was so aware of the trivialising effects of catchy Name Tags. He also lectured on Computing and Physics.

[Dormouse]

I see that Elon Musk is not just decimating his own wealth but, at a stroke, that of some of his Tesla customers. Tesla has introduced massive cuts in some Tesla model prices with immediate effect and caught current customers on the hop, paying thousands more for their cars this week that new customers next week won't have to.

However, Musk himself has already said that the prices Teslas can sell at is "embarrassing" and Tesla in China has been fighting a price war for 6 months already. So, it should not come as a shock that Tesla wants to realign itself as a main stream manufacturer and isn't afraid to to engage in a price war to increase it's market share.

[Dormouse]

I have watched this channel ( not all of it yet ) and there are some interesting snippets in it. It is aimed at Technicians but he does go out of his way to try and display the issues he finds. Bare in mind that quite often he is taking on work that others have already started and he does not always reinstate everything as it should be as he is only diagnosing and leaving the full repairs to others to complete. That said, he is quite explicit about the issues he finds along the way and demonstrates a lot of different pieces of equipment, basic to sophisticated, and how to utilise them properly as well as highlight the errors and assumptions made along the way.

This first one had a bit about key programming which triggered my interest, but the rest of it is good too as it shows how important observation is.





This next one shows how important it is to not be brutal in probing connectors and damaging things more

[Dormouse]

This is the most relevant recent vlog on using DiagBox versus other Scan Tools. His comments make interesting reading.

[CitroJim]

Interesting videos... Thanks for posting them Dormouse Only quickly scanned them on my laptop and now lined them up for viewing on the big screen this evening

[Dormouse]

They go back over 5 years and cover a very wide range of "modern" vehicles. He even does a video on diagnosing faults without any scan tools. Currently going through the playlist on Hybrid Vehicles and Batteries.

He recently did a video on an Alfa Aircon System which throws up an odd ball ending.

[Dormouse]

The "Puffer" was held this year - the first time since 2019. What is the "Puffer"? Think about the most masochistic bike ride you could dream of, do it in the dead of Winter and overnight when the temperatures plummet even more, then ask yourself "Why?"

You would be amazed at the vast range of answers.

This year the "Puffer" has chosen two Charities to donate to - My Name'5 Doddie and CRY. Many of you will have heard about Doddie Weir and his MND Foundation but I doubt many will have heard about CRY.
CRY is set up to promote screening and awareness of Cardiac Risks in Young People and to assist and help both the families and youngsters who suffer from the effects of Cardiac Trauma, before, during and after these cruel events. So, please feel free to look on the link below and donate.



https://strathpuffer.co.uk/charity

[Gibbo2286]

"youngsters who suffer from the effects of Cardiac Trauma,"
Caused by them doing that puffer run.