Coping With Covid

[bobins]

Yeh-buttt.... To put it in perspective, 'flu has been around for a long time, we've got used to it by now. There is a vaccine for it. In the Winter of 2017-2018 there were around 26,400 deaths in the UK attributed to it. In 2014-2015 there were around 28,300 deaths attributed to it. On average 8,000 people in the UK die of 'flu each year. Every year. And we have a vaccine for it.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... lu-reports

[Paul-R]

I should know, Mick, as I have an 'O' Level in statistics. ... I think it's been the most underused qualification I've ever got...

Nah, that would be my O-level Art qualification.

[mickthemaverick]

Nah, that would be my O-level Art qualification.

You mean you didn't get an F in Art?

[Gibbo2286]

There's one thing that hasn't come into the statistics, the post war baby boom.

In the late forties early fifties there was a boom in the birthrate, five years on there was a shortage of primary school places, a boom in five year olds followed later by a shortage of secondary school places.

Now in later life there has been a shortage of hospital and nursing home places as the boom population has aged, added to by a couple of years of extra life expectation.

So should we not now see a deaths boom, even without this added virus, as those baby boomers come to the end of their natural lifespan, many of whom will succumb to the added complication of the virus because they are already on their last days.

Anyone taken that into consideration?

[Paul-R]

You mean you didn't get an F in Art?

It's such a long time ago but my recollection is that I got a C in CSE Art as my school believed that the CSE syllabus was more creative. That's a CSE pass but only Grade A CSE equated to a GCE pass. I've always been crap with continuous assessment but I reckoned I could get a GCE pass with just the exam. I did this during the first term in the Lower Sixth and have made no use whatsoever of it since.

[mickthemaverick]

Good point Gibbo, that must have some sort of bearing on the issue!
On another point I have just heard people complaing that the UK death total is ALMOST as bad as Italy's. It should be borne in mind that the UK population is 10% more than Italy's and so only when our death total is 10% greater than Italy's would it be fair to say we are as bad as Italy!!

[bobins]

The reference to Italy's death toll, and the complaints that ours is bad begs the question : What is a good death toll ?

[bobins]

There's one thing that hasn't come into the statistics, the post war baby boom.

<Snippage occurred>

So should we not now see a deaths boom, even without this added virus, as those baby boomers come to the end of their natural lifespan, many of whom will succumb to the added complication of the virus because they are already on their last days.

Anyone taken that into consideration?

This gets tricky
We'll basically have to wait a year or so before we can work out the impact of C-19 in 2020. We know that C-19 has a very much higher mortality rate for those infected who are over 80(1) than those who are younger, we also know that the UK has an ageing population. The most common age for death in the UK is around 87 years old(2), whilst the average age for death is around 81 years old - up from 71 years old in 1960(3). I can imagine those last two stats will change post Covid-19, but probably by a smaller than expected amount.
The late 40s baby boom has, perhaps, already been making its presence felt by an increasing death rate since around 2011(4).

1 - https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327
2 - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... athbysexuk
3 - https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/exp ... &ind=false
4 - https://www.closer.ac.uk/data/births-deaths/


Edited to change a link from the Daily Mail to the ONS.

Just to add a little more confusion and variables into the mix - another issue that has a bearing on the mortality rate is the average age of those infected. Germany appears to have a very much younger average age of infection than the UK or Italy, and that is one of the issues that affects the average age of death as the young are much more liable to recover.

[Gibbo2286]

I'm 85 fit and well

The Germans killed our neighbours when I was five years old in the air raid shelter, we had lead water pipes in our house, no hot water, an open coal fire and all my working life has been in exhaust gas filled workshops, including from leaded petrol, we blew out asbestos brake and clutch dust, I served bare back in the Egyptian sun for near a couple of years.

Why am I still here.

Explain that with your statistics.

[bobins]

All those beastly things just mean you've an increased risk of falling off the perch earlier, it's not a guarantee
For the same reason smoking means you've an increased risk of dying earlier, it's not a guarantee.
For the same reason getting a dose of radiation means you've an increased risk of dying earlier, it's not a guarantee.
Ain't statistics wonderful

[Hell Razor5543]

"There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics". NOT Benjamin Disraeli, it first showed up in 1891.

[myglaren]

"There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics". NOT Benjamin Disraeli, it first showed up in 1891.

That was always presented to me as originating with Mr Churchill.

It seems this thread has snowballed while I have been absent.

On a less political and statistical note, my daughter's boyfriend's gran died last Saturday.
Testing disclosed that although it wasn't the cause of death it was contributory.
Of course, the family had been to visit her prior to her death. They were tested on Thursday. They all have it. No symptoms yet.
It is a given that my daughter will have been exposed, at home if not at her work.
Fortunately she is a very fit and healthy young woman so should shrug it off, she does have the sniffles though.

This may be of interest:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/d ... index.html

[Hell Razor5543]

Your family has both my sympathy and my concern. If I was the sort of person to pray I would remember them in my prayers. If it is of any help one of Mum's recipes (ginger and date cake) might be of help, as ginger does have useful properties where respiratory conditions are concerned. That recipe is in the list I posted up here;

https://www.frenchcarforum.co.uk/forum/ ... hp?t=64888

[myglaren]

Thanks James
I'll pass that along to her.

As said she is remarkably fit and healthy - plenty of exercise, running, walking, cycling etc. and eats healthy (vegan though). She can lift a 26 stone corpse on her own, more than three times her own weight.

We are uncomfortably close to it though as my eldest son had it and got through it.

He is nominally at Oxford doing a PhD, has degrees and has worked in Microbiology/Virology and Toxicology and for the past few years, on top of working in medicine, has been doing his masters (again at Oxford) but in a London hospital, practical hands-on research into respiratory illnesses and diseases - where he picked C-19 up in the first place.

We try to be aware and cautious, except me as I am immortal. Not really allowed out of the house. Don't tell anyone

[Hell Razor5543]

If he has been through COVID 19 it could be worth suggesting to him that he considers donating some blood plasma (if he has not already done so). The NHS wants the stuff to help any serious cases (as the blood plasma appears to act like a booster for the patients' immune system). Each person who has survived COVID 19 can donate enough blood plasma to help one other person.